With international borders to Australia shut for most temporary visa holders, and with an unknown date for reopening, some of Australia’s major industries that rely on overseas workers appear to be suffering judging from the number of working holiday visa holders.

A recent Freedom of Information request shows that the number of Subclass 417 – Working Holiday visa holders dropped by almost a third in four months from the end of September to November 2020. The figures seem stark: 63,567 working holiday visa holders as of 31 July 2020 to 42,567 working holiday visa holders as on 30 November 2020.

Considering pre-pandemic number of 417 visa grants were 180,223 for the total of the 2018-19 program year, the decline is sharp and troubling, especially given a recent parliamentary inquiry stressed the urgent need to incentivise overseas nationals and local workers to fill the labour shortage in critical sectors such as agriculture.

These numbers may not tell the whole story, though. While they certainly suggest a significant shortfall, it is likely that the 21,000 or so working holiday makers that do not hold this visa anymore have not left Australia. It is quite plausible many could have applied for and granted Subclass 408 – Temporary Activity visa under the Australian Government Endorsed Event stream (especially for the coronavirus pandemic) if they do not qualify for a further 417 visa, or another visa to remain in Australia, for that matter.

Given Australia’s relatively good handling of the pandemic, many would be trying their best to stay in Australia, either on a working holiday visa or another visa.

Just when this visa program, like many others, will resume its normal intended operation is currently anyone’s guess.