An addendum to the eleventh edition of The Administration of the Immigration and Citizenship Programs paper was released last week. This paper provides insights into Australia’s immigration program and its key drivers and trends.

A lot summarises the announcements and the effect of reforms that have already taken place, including changes to the student visa program and its income requirements, and more funding for compliance to address the concerns raised in the recently released Nixon Review.

The paper reveals some very interesting aspects of programs most of which relate to temporary visas.

Temporary visa refusal rates double in two years, lead by visitor and student visa refusals

The first is that the refusal rates for temporary visas increased from just under 4 per cent in 2020-21 to just over 8 per cent in 2022-23. Explanations for such a jump are:

• changing circumstances due to the pandemic and where the applicant no longer intended to travel to Australia,

• changes in the socio-economic conditions of the source country and a reduction in the quality of visa applications, and

• more mature risk management capabilities in place developed during the COVID-19 period.

These justifications, however, seem at odds with some of the figures and emphasis on the pandemic cannot be the primary reason. Refusal rates jumped around half a per cent from 2020-21 to 2021-22, which was in the middle of the pandemic, noted by the very low amount of visa lodgements and finalisations.

The changing circumstances and intentions of visa applicants are also unlikely to see them leave a visa application to be refused. Most would avoid a refusal by simply withdrawing their application.

It can also not be the increase in the number of temporary visa applications. This is because pre-pandemic refusal rates are comparative and even less than the 4.5 per cent refusal rate just prior to the pandemic.

Much of the driver of the increase in refusals is the visitor and student visa programs.

Visitor visas make up a large portion of temporary visas, accounting for over 4 million of the 8 million temporary visa applications in 2022-23. The refusal rate for that program year was above 11 per cent. Student visas, of which 600,000 were lodged in 2022-23, had a refusal rate of above 8 per cent. This program year, from 1 July 2023 to 31 August 2023, the rate is a whopping 18 per cent, accounted for by an increase in non-genuine and fraudulent activity.

The number of bridging visa holders halved

Another noticeable aspect of the paper is the 46.5 per cent reduction in the number of bridging visa holders (excluding Bridging visa E holders) from 351,385 holders as of 31 August 2022 to 188,132 as of 31 August 2023. While it can be expected that the number of bridging visa holders would gradually increase over time, this large reduction is primarily caused by the significant increase in the processing of applications, particularly for student and Temporary Resident (Other Employment) visa applications.

The doubling of Temporary Resident (Other Employment) visas to almost 400,000 visa holders from 31 August 2022 to 31 August 2023 is the likely work of the subclass 408 – Temporary Activity visa under the Australian Government endorsed events (COVID-19 Pandemic event) with 225,731 visas granted since it was introduced in 2020. No doubt these numbers will plunge in the coming years after the “COVID” visa is abolished at the end of January 2024.

Motor mechanic nominations for 482 visas jump 201 per cent in 2022-23

There was a 201 per cent increase in the number of nominated motor mechanics, ANZSCO: 321211 Motor Mechanic (General), in the 2022-23 program year for the subclass 482 – Temporary Skill Shortage visa. This raised the occupation to the sixth most nominated occupation. Nominations for diesel motor mechanics also lifted.

The increase is the likely result of two things:

• The lack of invitations issued to this occupation for General Skilled Migration visas over the recent years: the subclass 189 - Skilled – Independent visa, subclass 190 - Skilled – Nominated visa, and subclass 491 – Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa. This would drive frustrated applicants towards a phenomenon known as visa substitution: when one pathway is unlikely or not possible anymore, another, less optimal one, is considered. This increase would mostly reflect onshore visa applicants who want to extend their stay in Australia.

• The impending increase to the Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT). This was openly discussed in the second half of 2022, and which saw it jump from $53,900 to $70,000 per annum from 1 July 2023, which may be too high a salary for many who work in this occupation.

Nominations for labour agreement occupations also increased, showing a trend to more specialised solutions to labour shortages.

IT occupations dominate with 261313 Software Engineer the most nominated occupation followed by 351311 Chef.