While the full allocation of invitations for the Subclass 190 - Skilled – Nominated visa and the Subclass 491 – Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa nominated by a state or territory are not yet known, interim numbers until the Federal Budget is handed down have been released.

Delaying the Federal Budget this year from its usual month of May to October was so the government could better assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and provide a more measured response. Given the dissimilar situations currently being experienced between the states and territories, or rather the outlier of Victoria compared to the rest of the country, there is still uncertainty the Treasury will need to account for.

One aspect affected by the delay was Australia’s permanent migration planning levels, which have remained the same as last year for the time being. This is because it may be unreasonable to expect the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs) to suspend processing permanent visa applications until numbers have been finalised.

Part of the permanent migration planning levels are 190 visas and 491 visas nominated by a State or Territory. Each state and territory is allocated a set number of invitations every program year which they can then tailor their own occupation lists from the broader list of approved occupations and other requirements for their own migration program.

Home Affairs have issued an interim number of invitations for July 2020 to the beginning of October 2020, after which a firm and final allotment can be issued according to the government’s migration plan for the year. A recent Freedom of information (FOI) request asked for and received these numbers.

For 190 visas, the interim primary applicant invitations allocated to each state and territory for 2020-21 are:

Australian Capital Territory – 250

New South Wales – 550

Northern Territory – 80

Queensland – 200

South Australia – 300

Tasmania – 250

Victoria – 600

Western Australia – 200

Total - 2,430

For 491 visas nominated by a state or territory, the interim primary applicant invitations allocated to each state and territory for 2020-21 are:

Australian Capital Territory – 45

New South Wales – 150

Northern Territory – 80

Queensland – 200

South Australia – 600

Tasmania – 400

Victoria – 200

Western Australia – 40

Total - 1,715

What is interesting about these numbers is their proportion to the last year’s allocation. As the final numbers are expected in early October, a quarter of the year will have passed but less than a quarter of invitations compared to last year have been allocated.

The percentages vary widely between states and territories. Western Australia has the lowest with 4 per cent of their 491 visa invitations and 8.88 per cent of their 190 visa invitations compared with last year. The ACT has the largest percentage of 22.5 of their 491 visa invitations, while Victoria has 24 per cent of their 190 visa invitations compared with last year. As such, many states and territories have been prioritising their interim invitations as they see fit.

Should this be an indication that General Skilled Migration (GSM) visa numbers will be revised down come October, including the Subclass 189 - Skilled – Independent visa and 491 visa sponsored by an eligible relative? While always possible, reading too much into these statistics may not be helpful as the total average percentages are roughly 20 per cent for 190 visa invitations and 14 per cent for 491 visas. For an undetermined number of invitations, they are decent percentages.

There is less than a month until the total number of GSM visas, and all other visas for that matter, are available, when this year’s Federal Budget is handed down on 6 October 2020.